How big things get done The surprising factors that determine the fate of every project, from home renovations to space exploration and everything in between

This sharp study by Flyvbjerg (Megaprojects and Risk), a professor emeritus of program management at Oxford University, and journalist Gardner (Superforecasting) draws lessons in planning from megaprojects across the globe. Surveying the budgets and schedules of hundreds of massive development projects, the authors examine construction successes and failures to offer guidance on how to plan better for projects of any size. They extoll the importance of accurate forecasting and explain that progress on Hong Kong's high-speed rail project in the early 2010s appeared bungled largely because the corporation overseeing construction had projected an unrealistic forecast that they couldn't meet. Creating better predictions, the authors posit, requires comparing one's project to similar projects to get a reasonable estimate, something the Hong Kong transit authority failed to do. On the successful side, Flyvbjerg and Gardner hold up the Empire State Building, which was completed 17% under budget, as an exemplar of the "think slow, act fast" approach that emphasizes rigorous analysis and testing before breaking ground. The stories about the high-stakes world of megaprojects fascinate, and the authors excel at pulling from them broadly applicable lessons on foresight and planning. Readers will find this a boon. (Feb.)

Table of Contents Introduction: California Dreamin' Chapter 1: Think Slow, Act Fast The record of big projects is even worse than it seems. Chapter 2: The Commitment Fallacy You need to commit, but not in the way you think. Chapter 3: Think from Right to Left Start with the most basic question of all: Why? Chapter 4: Pixar Planning Plan like Pixar and Frank Gehry do. Chapter 5: Are You Experienced? Experience is often misunderstood and marginalized. Chapter 6: So You Think Your Project Is Unique? Think again. Your project is "one of those." Chapter 7: Can Ignorance Be Your Friend? Planning ruins projects, some say. But is it true? Chapter 8: A Single, Determined Organism Everyone must row in the same direction: toward delivery. Chapter 9: What's Your Lego? Modularity is the key to building at world-transforming scale. Coda: Eleven Heuristics for Better Project Leadership Excerpted from How Big Things Get Done: The Surprising Factors That Determine the Fate of Every Project, from Home Renovations to Space Exploration and Everything in Between by Bent Flyvbjerg, Dan Gardner All rights reserved by the original copyright owners. Excerpts are provided for display purposes only and may not be reproduced, reprinted or distributed without the written permission of the publisher.