Prophecy Prediction, power, and the fight for the future, from ancient oracles to AI

Today's algorithmically generated "predictive" decisions, from loan approvals to missile strikes, are, despite their scientific veneer, no less expressions of cultural and personal desires than the "prophecies" of earlier eras, ethicist Véliz (Privacy Is Power) argues in this captivating study. Surveying the long history of prediction, from the "oracle bones" of Shang dynasty China (1600--1046 BCE) to the writings of England's 16th-century "astrologer-physicians, Véliz shows that "prediction cannot be disentangled from power." In classical Greece, for instance, the priestesses of the Oracle of Delphi were known to bribes in return for delivering convenient political messages. Véliz shows how statistical prediction similarly undergirded a range of fraught political and economic developments in the 19th century, from the rise of race science to the emergence of the insurance industry. The proliferation in recent years of machine learning, large language models, and so-called artificial intelligence has turbocharged the role of prediction in culture, she notes. The rise of AI chatbots, in particular, has brought humans back full circle to ancient forms of prophecy like the Oracle of Delphi. By employing statistical models to guess the most appropriate response to a given prompt, chatbots enact the same ancient feedback loop of power and desire, hidden behind a quasi-mystical process. Véliz elucidates complex philosophical and technological concepts with ease, while covering a vast range of topics. Lively and erudite, this impresses. (Apr.)

Future shocks. Véliz, a scholar at the University of Oxford, offers a brisk, lively tour of humanity's long fascination with foretelling, arguing that prediction and power have always been intertwined and that "predictions are often power moves disguised as quests for knowledge." Greek soothsayers, relying on "the reading of entrails, birds' flights, and the stars," lacked the concept of probability. Later, as Christianity took hold, prediction became the sole jurisdiction of God, with fortune tellers barred from baptism and threatened with death. Véliz threads the insights of thinkers from Cicero to Kant and cites Max Weber's view that the mathematization of prediction ushered in a rational but spiritually diminished world. The author also delights in the quirks of modern history--Nancy Reagan, François Mitterrand, Jacques Chirac, and Princess Diana consulted astrologers. A standout vignette traces modern insurance back to Edward Lloyd's dockside coffeehouse, where "Lloyd's List" began as a practical ledger of sailors' reports before evolving into a full-blown insurance society. Today, insurance, mortgages, and hiring processes are governed by machine-learning algorithms--prediction engines supercharged by data. "AI is prediction on steroids," Véliz writes, "and we are now using it not only on the battlefield and in the doctor's office buteverywhere, from the office to the classroom, the courtroom, our roads, our love lives, and beyond." The book stays tightly focused on the nexus of foresight and power, asserting that digital tools are not neutral but are instruments of surveillance. Prediction algorithms and the companies that deploy them wield astonishing influence. As a result, Véliz warns, democracy now hangs in the balance. A sharp, engaging, and often unsettling meditation on humanity's enduring hunger to know--and control--the future. Copyright (c) Kirkus Reviews, used with permission.